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Pictured above: William Lai, head of Taiwan’s DPP party is trying to drive his people off a cliff.
Sixteen years on the streets, living and working with the people of China, Jeff
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Intro
Check out all my many posts about of our lives here in Taiwan China, and its (geo-)politics,
10-point summary
1. **Taiwan’s High-Level Security Meeting**:
Taiwanese President William Lai convened a high-level security meeting to address five major national security issues, proposing 17 strategies that critics argue could impose martial law and turn Taiwan into a police state.
2. **Demonization of Mainland China**:
Lai labeled Mainland China as a “foreign hostile force,” creating hysteria by exaggerating threats of invasion. This rhetoric is likened to the DPP’s “Green Terror,” aimed at suppressing dissenting voices and escalating tensions for political gain.
3. **China’s Anti-Secessionist Stance**:
The article highlights China’s commitment to peaceful reunification, referencing the 2005 Anti-Secession Law. It emphasizes that Taiwan is part of China and achieving reunification is an internal affair, rejecting any external interference.
4. **Historical Context of Reunification Models**:
The success of Hong Kong and Macau’s integration with Mainland China is cited as evidence of Beijing’s willingness to allow autonomy. Macau, in particular, thrived after reintegrating with China, while Hong Kong faced instability due to Western sabotage.
5. **Economic Interdependence Between Taiwan and Mainland China**:
Despite political tensions, Taiwan’s economy remains deeply intertwined with Mainland China. In 2024, trade between the two reached nearly $300 billion, growing by almost 10% year-on-year. A significant portion of Taiwan’s population lives and works on the Mainland, underscoring economic interdependence.
6. **DPP’s Provocations and Risks of Independence**:
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by Lai, is pushing for Taiwan’s independence, risking conflict with China. Such actions could provoke a military response from Beijing, especially if Taiwan declares independence or relies on U.S. support.
7. **U.S. Influence and Strategic Manipulation**:
The U.S. is accused of manipulating Taiwan for its own strategic interests, pressuring TSMC to invest heavily in America and attempting to decouple Taiwan’s economy from China. These moves are seen as harmful to Taiwan’s long-term prosperity.
8. **Public Backlash Against Lai’s Policies**:
Lai’s policies have sparked opposition within Taiwan, particularly from tourism industry workers and others affected by restrictions on cross-strait exchanges. Critics accuse the DPP of creating a “fake democracy, real dictatorship” by silencing dissent.
9. **Contrast Between Peaceful Reunification and Conflict**:
The article contrasts China’s Anti-Secession Law, which promotes peaceful reunification, with Lai’s destabilizing “17 strategies.” It warns that pursuing conflict over cooperation will lead to catastrophe for Taiwan and its people.
10. **Call for Rationality and Cooperation**:
The article concludes by urging Taiwan’s leaders to prioritize the well-being of their people and avoid provoking a catastrophic war. It emphasizes that peaceful cross-strait relations depend on mutual trust and economic integration, not separatism or external manipulation.
Transcript
While the world is trying to predict what US President Donald Trump is going to do today and then see how he changes his mind tomorrow, all of the focus is on Ukraine and Russia. Not to mention the Jewish state’s ongoing genocide and starvation of millions of Gentiles in West Asia, while stealing Gaza, the West Bank, Golan Heights and Syria. History’s greatest crime against humanity has been disappeared by the West’s Big Lie Propaganda Machine.
Barely reported, three days ago, the President of Taiwan, William Lai convened a high-level security meeting. He then held a lengthy press conference to review what happened. He talked about how, “Taiwan is a sovereign, independent, democratic nation”, labeling Mainland China, “A foreign hostile force” and in doing so, came up with 17 major strategies to address five major national security issues.
These 17 major strategies, if adopted, would turn Taiwan back into a police state under martial law and create mass hysteria and fear, by turning Mainland China into a Sino-boogie bear that is going to destroy Taiwan. This is in spite of all the evidence clearly demonstrating that China would never do this, even if they were forced to invade due to Taiwan declaring independence, or the United States causing a false flag, to get China into a hot war. It is no coincidence Lai convened his security meeting and gave his inflammatory, martial law-esque speech the same week China recognized 14 March as the twentieth anniversary of China’s Anti-Secessionist Law. Of course, back in 2005, the United States was already fomenting and supporting independence forces, especially the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party).
Twenty years ago, here is what China said in their law,
The Taiwan question is one that is left over from China’s Civil War of the late nineteen-forties.
And after the country is unified peacefully, Taiwan may practice systems different from those on the Mainland and enjoy a high degree of autonomy.
And that’s exactly what has happened with Hong Kong and Macau. Macau is a shining example. In 1999, Portugal returned Macau back to Mainland China. Instead of doing what Hong Kong did, which let itself be used as a platform by Western powers to try to overthrow the Chinese government, Macau openly embraced Mainland China.
As a result of that, since then, now Macau has a higher GDP per capita than Hong Kong! We were in Macau back in the nineties. It was a poor, rundown place. Other than a few casinos and the tiny elite class, everybody else was just hanging on and the infrastructure was hitting third-world. Now Macau is thriving and prospering, because they have essentially reintegrated with Mainland China, other than they have the border, because Macau has casinos and China takes a very dim view of gambling. Now the Macanese are richer than the Hongkongers, while since 1997, Hong Kong has been continuously used as a launching pad to cause subterfuge and treason in China.
To give you an idea about how patient and indulgent the Chinese leadership is, which I call Baba Beijing: in the 1997 Basic Law, it states that Hong Kong was expected to sign a national security law, which makes it treason to try to overthrow the Hong Kong government and way of life, and to try to split Hong Kong away from China. Margaret Thatcher and Deng Xiaoping put it into this handover treaty. But, heavily influenced and managed by Western saboteurs, Hong Kong never did. Year after year, from 1997 until 2020, nada. This, after Hong Kong had been wrecked by Western subterfuge, starting with the Mossad-CIA-MI6 color revolution Umbrella Movement in 2014, culminating in the territory being hugely wrecked 2019-2020 by Western-financed, organized, violent, destructive riots.
Only then did Baba Beijing say, okay, enough is enough. You all won’t sign a national security agreement, then we will do it for you. The Thatcher-Deng treaty gave Baba the authority to intervene if Hong Kong’s security and safety are at serious risk. The Mainland patiently watched, 2014-2018, while the West sabotaged the territory and then let Hong Kongers try to stop the 2019-2020 riots on their own. Six long years. Finally, China’s State Council, the top 300 leaders above the National People’s Congress, wrote a national security law, gave it to Hong Kong and said, we’ve waited twenty-three years for this damn thing, so here it is.
At that point, Hong Kong was able to arrest scores of local turncoats, traitors, and Western puppets who were there to destroy Hong Kong society. Many billions of dollars/euros of destruction of Hong Kong’s public infrastructure and economic recession suddenly stopped. Now the 1,000 spies and provocateurs who are working at the US consulate in Hong Kong don’t have anything to do. All this just goes to show you how patient Baba Beijing is in situations like this.
Baba Beijing is not stupid. Taiwan Province, if you take its gross domestic product, would rank the sixth biggest, ahead of Sichuan and after Zhejiang. Almost US$1 trillion. Baba is not going to mess that up. They’re not going to do anything to kill the fraternal goose that lays so many golden eggs.
Macau still has its currency. I suspect China would let Taiwan keep its New Taiwan dollar as long as necessary. The only thing that would definitely change quickly would be the Taiwanese military. It would come under the rubric of the People’s Liberation Army sooner than later. But other than that, China is going to let them do what they what they’re already doing right now. Here in Taiwan, you can buy private land/property. Baba Beijing is not going to nationalize all that. They’re going to let the people keep their legacy system, which is completely different than Mainland China’s, where all land/dirt is people-owned. There’s a massive amount of manufacturing here. We drive 35km to Taichung, the third largest city in Taiwan Province. There are factories everywhere. They make cars and have all kinds of small and medium industries manufacturing endless kinds of different products. Not to mention TSMC, the world’s largest chip maker.
Baba Beijing is not going to mess that up. We live here in Puli Town, up close and personal. Therefore, from our perspective, it’s really disturbing what William Lai and the DPP are doing. Turning Taiwan back into a police state should wear on the memories of many older Taiwanese. When Chiang Kai-Shek and the KMT fled to here in 1949, from then until 1987, this island was a brutal dictatorship, an absolutely repressive police state, martial law from 1949 to 1987. It was called the White Terror. During that time, there’s estimates of 20,000-30,000 Taiwanese who were executed by Chiang Kai-Shek’s government. After his death in 1975, his son, Chiang Ching-Kuo continued the repression until 1987, when martial law was finally suspended. Besides tens of thousands killed, 140,000 were imprisoned, with torture being par for the course. Taiwan was gunning down dissidents in the United States and Europe, who left the country. It was just as bad as the military dictatorships in Brazil in the 1960s and Argentina in 1970s. There’s a famous quote by Chiang Kai-Shek. He said,
I would rather mistakenly kill a thousand innocent people than to let one communist escape.
This mindset set the tone for the Taiwanese for more than a generation. Thus, clearly, older Taiwanese, after listening to Lai’s speech yesterday, are probably having some serious reservations about being pushed back into what some are dubbing the “Green Terror”, since the DPP’s official color is green. Lai’s 17 strategic points are eerily reminiscent of the previous generation. Instead of creating mass hysteria against communism, the DPP green version would be achieved by demonizing and whipping up unbridled fear that Mainland China is going to destroy Taiwan. Yet, even if China was forced to invade Taiwan, they are going to do everything, just like Putin in Ukraine, to not hurt Taiwan civilians. They will do everything they can to protect the Taiwanese people, Taiwan’s infrastructure, houses, businesses, etcetera.
Mark Rubio, the new US Secretary of State, wore the white hat during one of his first meetings, saying, “We can’t go to war with China”. The reality is the DPP is at least heavily influenced by the US, if not Yankee controlled. I’m sure Trump and Rubio knew in advance exactly what Lai was going to say in his speech, and they may have helped him write it.
At the end of the day, we’re not too worried about it. We’ve got our little desktop PRC flag that we can wave to the PLA soldiers, if they knock on our door, and we can show them the business license of our Chinese limited liability company. I speak Mandarin. I’m not too worried about telling them our story.
Nevertheless, we love the Taiwanese people, and it’s sad to see that Lai is willing to risk their lives. He is really pushing the people into a very unenviable position. If he gets away with imposing his plans (luckily, the pro-China forces control the legislature – but, he could declare martial law), the skies would darken over Jade Mountain Island.
It’s already happening with little things. Until last week, we could shop using Mainland Taobao, paying in RMB. I have a bank account in China. I get paid in RMB by Chinese students, so can do so.
Now, we are shut off. Only Macanese and Hongkongers with resident permits, and Taiwanese natives can still use Taobao here, as long as they can pay in RMB. Non-Chinese, even with Evelyne’s hard-won and celebratory resident permit, are shut out. Little inconveniences like this will surely turn into many, as bigger roadblocks are slowly implemented. The DPP is trying to create a cold-war-esque iron curtain between Mainland China and Taiwan, using it as a pretext to impose martial law again.
This is in spite of the fact that in 2024, there was almost US$300 billion of total trade between Taiwan Province and the Mainland, up almost 10% from 2023. Already in the first two months of 2025, there was US$43 billion in trade, a year-on-year 8.8% rise. Taiwan simply cannot function economically without Mainland China. They can’t.
There are a million Taiwanese citizens who are living and working on the continent. That’s five percent of the island’s population. All those factories that we see when we go to Taichung, kilometer after kilometer of factories, There’s at least as many Taiwanese factories across the Straits, if not more. Which country has the world’s best logistics, supply chain, port and rail systems? That would be the PRC, which savvy Taiwanese businesspeople know they need to take advantage of. They simply cannot quit doing trade and investment with the Mainland. Is the DPP going to sabotage Taiwan’s economy, like Brussels has done to destroy Europe’s?
Then, I saw this silly article. Taiwan is going to do an anti-dumping probe on the Mainland for steel and beer, while looking for other countermeasures. First, billion-dollar Taiwanese corporations are likely invested in steel mills in China, for the island’s extensive manufacturing. And they’re flooding Taiwan with beer? I drink a bottle of beer at dinner and I have never seen a Mainland beer here in any store, anywhere. That includes Costco, where we went a couple of weeks ago in Taichung.
At this point, it’s really hard to say what’s going to happen. I’m just worried that Lai may be pushed by Uncle Slaughter to declare independence. In that case, here comes the PLA, baby. It’s not going to last long, because the United States is in no position to try to defend this island. Military supply lines for the Mainland are 150 kilometers, not 11,000 klicks like for America. Not to mention, the PLA could have this island blockaded with aircraft carriers and destroyers in less than twenty-four hours. A PLAAF J-20 stealth fighter jet leaving the Mainland coast can barely get off the runway before it has already flown over Taiwan!
Lai and his DPP are very disappointing and who knows? Maybe while living here, we will experience the Mainland reuniting Jade Mountain Island back into the bosom of the great Chinese Nation by force, instead of peaceful negotiations. Even with Baba Beijing doing everything it can to avoid civilian casualties, the DPP would be putting Taiwanese lives, including our friends, at risk. Let’s hope not.
This is Jeff J. Brown signing out. Bye-bye.
Sources
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202503/1330161.shtml
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202503/1330147.shtml
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202503/1329966.shtml
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202503/1329963.shtml
https://english.president.gov.tw/NEWS/6919
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JEFF J. BROWN, Editor, China Rising, and Senior Editor & China Correspondent, Dispatch from Beijing, The Greanville Post
Jeff J. Brown is a geopolitical analyst, journalist, lecturer and the author of The China Trilogy. It consists of 44 Days Backpacking in China – The Middle Kingdom in the 21st Century, with the United States, Europe and the Fate of the World in Its Looking Glass (2013); Punto Press released China Rising – Capitalist Roads, Socialist Destinations (2016); and BIG Red Book on China (2020). As well, he published a textbook, Doctor WriteRead’s Treasure Trove to Great English (2015). Jeff is a Senior Editor & China Correspondent for The Greanville Post, where he keeps a column, Dispatch from Beijing and is a Global Opinion Leader at 21st Century. He also writes a column for The Saker, called the Moscow-Beijing Express. Jeff writes, interviews and podcasts on his own program, China Rising Radio Sinoland, which is also available on YouTube, Stitcher Radio, iTunes, Ivoox and RUvid. Guests have included Ramsey Clark, James Bradley, Moti Nissani, Godfree Roberts, Hiroyuki Hamada, The Saker and many others. [/su_spoiler]
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